{"id":23375,"date":"2026-08-26T04:38:38","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T01:08:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/visa-chance-2\/"},"modified":"2026-08-26T04:38:38","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T01:08:38","slug":"visa-chance","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/visa-chance\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada Visitor &#038; Study Visa Chance Scorer"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In a few minutes, estimate your <strong>Canadian visitor visa or study permit<\/strong> chances across the four factors IRCC officers actually weigh: ties to home, finances, purpose and logic, and refusal history. A score out of 100 with a diagnosis of your file&#8217;s weakest area \u2014 free, no signup.<\/p>\n<div id=\"av-chance\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<style>\n#av-chance{--red:#b4443c;--ink:#26262b;--grey:#6d675e;--line:#e2dccf;--ok:#3f7a55;--amber:#a8702a;font-size:15px;max-width:680px;margin:0 auto}\n#av-chance .avh-card{background:#fff;border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:13px;padding:24px}\n#av-chance .avh-modes{display:flex;gap:10px;margin-bottom:20px}\n#av-chance .avh-modes button{flex:1;padding:12px;border:2px solid var(--line);background:#faf8f4;border-radius:10px;font-size:15px;font-weight:700;cursor:pointer;font-family:inherit;color:var(--grey)}\n#av-chance .avh-modes button.on{border-color:var(--red);color:var(--red);background:#fdf3f2}\n#av-chance .avh-g{margin-bottom:6px}\n#av-chance .avh-gh{font-weight:800;font-size:14px;color:var(--red);margin:18px 0 8px;padding-bottom:5px;border-bottom:2px solid var(--line)}\n#av-chance .avh-q{margin-bottom:12px}\n#av-chance .avh-q label{display:block;font-weight:700;font-size:13.5px;margin-bottom:5px;color:var(--ink)}\n#av-chance .avh-q select{width:100%;padding:10px 12px;border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:8px;font-size:14px;background:#fff;color:var(--ink);font-family:inherit}\n#av-chance .avh-btn{width:100%;margin-top:14px;padding:14px;background:var(--red);color:#fff;border:0;border-radius:9px;font-size:16px;font-weight:700;cursor:pointer;font-family:inherit}\n#av-chance .avh-res{display:none;margin-top:20px;border-top:2px solid var(--line);padding-top:18px}\n#av-chance .avh-score{text-align:center;margin-bottom:14px}\n#av-chance .avh-score .n{font-size:52px;font-weight:800;line-height:1}\n#av-chance .avh-score .of{color:var(--grey);font-size:15px}\n#av-chance .avh-band{text-align:center;font-size:14.5px;margin-bottom:16px;padding:10px 14px;border-radius:9px;background:#faf8f4}\n#av-chance .avh-bar{margin-bottom:10px}\n#av-chance .avh-bar .t{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;font-size:13px;font-weight:700;margin-bottom:3px}\n#av-chance .avh-bar .bg{height:10px;background:#eee7d9;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden}\n#av-chance .avh-bar .fg{height:100%;border-radius:6px;background:var(--ok);transition:width .5s ease}\n#av-chance .avh-tip{background:#fdf7ec;border:1px solid #ecdcc0;border-radius:9px;padding:12px 15px;font-size:13.5px;margin:14px 0}\n#av-chance .avh-tip b{color:var(--amber)}\n#av-chance .avh-lead{background:#f5f1e9;border:1px solid #e2d9c8;border-radius:10px;padding:14px 16px;margin-top:14px}\n#av-chance .avh-lead .h{font-weight:700;font-size:14px;margin-bottom:8px}\n#av-chance .avh-lead .row{display:flex;gap:8px;flex-wrap:wrap}\n#av-chance .avh-lead input{flex:1;min-width:190px;padding:10px 12px;border:1px solid #cfc5b2;border-radius:8px;font-size:14px}\n#av-chance .avh-lead button{padding:10px 22px;background:var(--red);color:#fff;border:0;border-radius:8px;font-weight:700;cursor:pointer;font-family:inherit}\n#av-chance .avh-lead .m{margin-top:6px;font-size:13px;color:var(--ok);min-height:1em}\n#av-chance .avh-ctas{display:flex;gap:10px;flex-wrap:wrap;margin-top:14px}\n#av-chance .avh-ctas a{flex:1;min-width:200px;text-align:center;padding:13px;border-radius:9px;font-weight:700;font-size:14px;text-decoration:none}\n#av-chance .avh-ctas .c1{background:var(--red);color:#fff}\n#av-chance .avh-ctas .c2{background:#26262b;color:#fff}\n#av-chance .avh-disc{margin-top:14px;font-size:12px;color:#8d8679;line-height:1.8}\n<\/style>\n<div class=\"avh-card\">\n  <div class=\"avh-modes\">\n    <button type=\"button\" id=\"avh-mode-v\" class=\"on\">Visitor visa<\/button>\n    <button type=\"button\" id=\"avh-mode-s\">Study permit<\/button>\n  <\/div>\n  <div id=\"avh-qs\"><\/div>\n  <button type=\"button\" class=\"avh-btn\" id=\"avh-go\">Calculate my chance<\/button>\n  <div class=\"avh-res\" id=\"avh-res\">\n    <div class=\"avh-score\"><span class=\"n\" id=\"avh-n\">0<\/span><span class=\"of\"> \/ 100 \u2014 Estimated chance score<\/span><\/div>\n    <div class=\"avh-band\" id=\"avh-band\"><\/div>\n    <div id=\"avh-bars\"><\/div>\n    <div class=\"avh-tip\" id=\"avh-tip\"><\/div>\n    <div class=\"avh-lead\">\n      <div class=\"h\">Email me this breakdown and what to do next<\/div>\n      <div class=\"row\">\n        <input type=\"email\" id=\"avh-email\" placeholder=\"Your email\" dir=\"ltr\">\n        <button type=\"button\" id=\"avh-email-go\">Send<\/button>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"m\" id=\"avh-email-msg\"><\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <div class=\"avh-ctas\">\n      <a class=\"c1\" href=\"\/en\/assessment\/\">Free case assessment<\/a>\n      <a class=\"c2\" href=\"\/consult\/\">Book a consultation (RCIC #R522575)<\/a>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n  <div class=\"avh-disc\">This is an unofficial, educational estimate built by Aval Visa \u2014 it is not an IRCC tool, and no score guarantees or predicts any officer&#039;s decision. Every case is decided individually by IRCC.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<script>\n(function(){\n  var Q = [[\"ties\",\"job\",\"Your work situation at home\",[[\"Stable job or registered business\",8,8],[\"Self-employed \\\/ freelance\",5,5],[\"Student\",4,6],[\"Retired with pension\",7,7],[\"Not working\",0,0]]],[\"ties\",\"family\",\"Close family staying behind (spouse\\\/children who are NOT traveling)\",[[\"Yes \\u2014 spouse and\\\/or children stay\",7,7],[\"Parents\\\/siblings only\",4,4],[\"No close ties staying\",2,2]]],[\"ties\",\"assets\",\"Documented property or business in your country\",[[\"Registered property or business\",6,6],[\"Some documented assets\",3,3],[\"None\",0,0]]],[\"ties\",\"travelparty\",\"Who travels with you?\",[[\"I travel alone or with part of the family\",4,4],[\"My entire immediate family travels with me\",0,0]]],[\"funds\",\"balance\",\"Funds vs. the cost of this trip \\\/ first year of study\",[[\"Fully sufficient, with 4-6 months of account history\",13,13],[\"Sufficient but recently deposited\",7,7],[\"Borderline\",3,3],[\"Not sufficient yet\",0,0]]],[\"funds\",\"income\",\"Documented regular income\",[[\"Official, documented income\",7,7],[\"Income without formal documents\",3,3],[\"No income\",0,0]]],[\"funds\",\"sponsor\",\"Financial backing\",[[\"Sponsor\\\/family support with full documents\",5,5],[\"Self-funded only\",3,3],[\"Unclear\",0,0]]],[\"logic\",\"purpose\",\"Purpose strength\",[[\"Documented invitation, event or close family with status in Canada\",10,-1],[\"Tourism with a clear itinerary\",6,-1],[\"General visit, no documents yet\",2,-1],[\"Program directly continues my education\\\/career path\",-1,10],[\"Related field with a clear study plan\",-1,7],[\"Unrelated field or no study plan yet\",-1,2]]],[\"logic\",\"history\",\"Travel history in the last 5 years\",[[\"Schengen \\\/ UK \\\/ US \\\/ Australia visits\",10,8],[\"Regional trips only (e.g. T\\u00fcrkiye, UAE)\",5,4],[\"No international travel\",0,0]]],[\"logic\",\"fit\",\"Trip length & return plan (visitor) \\\/ age-to-program fit (study)\",[[\"Reasonable and consistent\",5,7],[\"Somewhat unusual\",2,3],[\"Hard to justify\",0,0]]],[\"risk\",\"carefusal\",\"Previous Canadian refusals\",[[\"None\",10,10],[\"One, and the reason is now fixed\",5,5],[\"More than one \\\/ recent\",0,0]]],[\"risk\",\"otherrefusal\",\"Refusals from other countries\",[[\"None\",4,4],[\"Yes\",1,1]]],[\"risk\",\"overstay\",\"Overstay history (staying beyond a visa) in any country\",[[\"Never\",6,6],[\"Yes\",0,0]]],[\"risk\",\"criminal\",\"Criminal record\",[[\"None\",5,5],[\"Yes \\u2014 needs professional review before applying\",0,0]]]];\n  var G = {\"ties\":\"Ties to home\",\"funds\":\"Finances\",\"logic\":\"Purpose & logic\",\"risk\":\"Refusal & record risk\"};\n  var BANDS = [\"Good starting position \\u2014 with a well-documented file this profile is workable.\",\"Workable but fragile \\u2014 the weak areas below need real strengthening before you apply.\",\"Not ready yet \\u2014 applying now would risk a refusal that makes future files harder.\"];\n  var TIPS = {\"ties\":\"Strengthen documented ties: employment letter, business registration, property deeds, and family members remaining home.\",\"funds\":\"Season your funds 4-6 months, document income sources, and avoid large last-minute deposits.\",\"logic\":\"Build the story: documented purpose, a consistent itinerary or study plan, and realistic timing.\",\"risk\":\"A refusal history needs a professional response: get your GCMS notes and address the officer's stated reasons directly.\"};\n  var WEAKEST = \"Weakest area\";\n  var API = \"https:\\\/\\\/avalvisa.com\\\/en\\\/wp-json\\\/avalvisa\\\/v1\\\/subscribe\";\n  var LANG = \"en\";\n  var mode = 'v', lastScore = null, lastMode = 'v';\n  function $(id){ return document.getElementById(id); }\n  function build(){\n    var box = $('avh-qs'), html = '', curG = '';\n    Q.forEach(function(q, i){\n      var opts = q[3].filter(function(o){ return (mode === 'v' ? o[1] : o[2]) >= 0; });\n      if (!opts.length) return;\n      if (q[0] !== curG) { curG = q[0]; html += '<div class=\"avh-gh\">' + G[curG] + '<\/div>'; }\n      html += '<div class=\"avh-q\"><label>' + q[2] + '<\/label><select data-i=\"' + i + '\"><option value=\"\"><\/option>';\n      opts.forEach(function(o){ html += '<option value=\"' + (mode === 'v' ? o[1] : o[2]) + '\">' + o[0] + '<\/option>'; });\n      html += '<\/select><\/div>';\n    });\n    box.innerHTML = html;\n    $('avh-res').style.display = 'none';\n  }\n  $('avh-mode-v').addEventListener('click', function(){ mode = 'v'; this.classList.add('on'); $('avh-mode-s').classList.remove('on'); build(); });\n  $('avh-mode-s').addEventListener('click', function(){ mode = 's'; this.classList.add('on'); $('avh-mode-v').classList.remove('on'); build(); });\n  $('avh-go').addEventListener('click', function(){\n    var sums = { ties:0, funds:0, logic:0, risk:0 };\n    var sels = $('avh-qs').querySelectorAll('select');\n    for (var k = 0; k < sels.length; k++) {\n      var s = sels[k];\n      if (s.value === '') { s.style.borderColor = '#b4443c'; s.focus(); return; }\n      s.style.borderColor = '';\n      sums[Q[parseInt(s.getAttribute('data-i'), 10)][0]] += parseInt(s.value, 10);\n    }\n    Object.keys(sums).forEach(function(g){ if (sums[g] > 25) sums[g] = 25; });\n    var total = sums.ties + sums.funds + sums.logic + sums.risk;\n    lastScore = total; lastMode = mode;\n    $('avh-n').textContent = total;\n    $('avh-n').style.color = total >= 75 ? '#3f7a55' : (total >= 50 ? '#a8702a' : '#b4443c');\n    $('avh-band').textContent = BANDS[total >= 75 ? 0 : (total >= 50 ? 1 : 2)];\n    var bars = '', weakest = 'ties';\n    Object.keys(sums).forEach(function(g){\n      if (sums[g] < sums[weakest]) weakest = g;\n      var pct = Math.round(sums[g] \/ 25 * 100);\n      bars += '<div class=\"avh-bar\"><div class=\"t\"><span>' + G[g] + '<\/span><span>' + sums[g] + ' \/ 25<\/span><\/div>'\n            + '<div class=\"bg\"><div class=\"fg\" style=\"width:' + pct + '%;background:' + (pct >= 70 ? '#3f7a55' : (pct >= 40 ? '#a8702a' : '#b4443c')) + '\"><\/div><\/div><\/div>';\n    });\n    $('avh-bars').innerHTML = bars;\n    $('avh-tip').innerHTML = '<b>' + WEAKEST + ': ' + G[weakest] + '<\/b> \u2014 ' + TIPS[weakest];\n    $('avh-res').style.display = 'block';\n    $('avh-res').scrollIntoView({ block: 'nearest' });\n  });\n  $('avh-email-go').addEventListener('click', function(){\n    var m = $('avh-email-msg');\n    fetch(API, { method:'POST', headers:{'Content-Type':'application\/json'},\n      body: JSON.stringify({ email: $('avh-email').value, lang: LANG,\n        source: 'chance-' + (lastScore === null ? 'na' : lastScore),\n        note: (lastScore === null ? 'Chance ?' : ((lastMode === 'v' ? 'TRV' : 'Study') + ' chance ' + lastScore + '\/100')), website: '' })\n    }).then(function(r){ return r.json(); }).then(function(d){\n      m.textContent = d.msg || ''; m.style.color = d.ok ? '#3f7a55' : '#b4443c';\n    }).catch(function(){ m.textContent = '\u2026'; m.style.color = '#b4443c'; });\n  });\n  build();\n})();\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<h2>How is this score calculated?<\/h2>\n<p>The model was designed by the Aval Visa team around the most common refusal grounds cited in officers&#8217; letters (R179(b) ties, funds, purpose of visit). Each factor carries up to 25 points. It is not an official tool and does not replace a professional file review \u2014 but it shows you which part of your file needs work before you apply.<\/p>\n<p>If you have a refusal history, the right first step is ordering your <strong>GCMS notes<\/strong> and reading the officer&#8217;s actual reasons \u2014 tell us your situation in the <a href=\"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/assessment\/\">free assessment<\/a> and we&#8217;ll recommend the exact path.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a few minutes, estimate your Canadian visitor visa or study permit chances across the four factors IRCC officers actually weigh: ties to home, finances, purpose and logic, and refusal history. A score out of 100 with a diagnosis of your file&#8217;s weakest area \u2014 free, no signup. How is this score calculated? The model [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-23375","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/23375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23375"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/23375\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}