{"id":28214,"date":"2026-09-30T10:30:33","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T07:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/blog\/carney-immigration-levels-plan-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T11:32:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T08:02:21","slug":"carney-immigration-levels-plan-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/blog\/carney-immigration-levels-plan-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Carney Floats an Immigration Increase \u2014 What the Levels Plan Actually Says"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prime Minister Mark Carney has told The New York Times<\/em> that he expects Canada to begin raising immigration again. He put no date on it. The quote travelled fast, and plenty of people have read it as a decision. It is not one. Nothing changed today — and the document that will actually change something is due within about a month.<\/p>\n

Here is what was said, what the plan currently in force actually contains, and what both mean if you are preparing an application.<\/p>\n

What Carney actually said<\/h2>\n

Asked about population growth, the Prime Minister said: “Now the question starts to become, when do we resume some controlled increase in the population, which is the nature of Canada?”<\/em> He went on: “So that will happen, and we just want to make sure that we’ve got it under control.”<\/em><\/p>\n

Read it closely, because two words are doing the work. He said “when”, not “whether”<\/strong> — and “controlled increase”<\/strong>, not a return to the intake of 2022 and 2023. He gave no timeline.<\/strong> The remarks were reported by The Canadian Press on 29 September 2026.<\/p>\n

In July the same government said it had “taken back control” of the immigration system after the rapid growth of the Trudeau years. Both statements can be read together as a sequence: bring the numbers down first, then allow a controlled increase from the lower base. Only the first half of that is on paper. The second exists so far in Carney’s own words, with no document and no date behind it. A Prime Minister thinking aloud in an interview is a signal, not a rule. No stream opened, closed, or moved its cut-off because of it.<\/p>\n

The document that matters, and its deadline<\/h2>\n

Under section 94 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act<\/a>, the Minister must table an annual report in both Houses of Parliament on or before 1 November each year<\/strong> — or, if a House is not sitting then, within the next 30 days on which it sits. That report carries the immigration levels plan: the admission targets for the following three years.<\/p>\n

So the Prime Minister made this comment roughly a month before his government is required by law to publish the actual numbers. That timing is the real story here. If an increase is genuinely coming, it will appear in that document with figures attached — not in an interview.<\/p>\n

What the plan on the books actually says<\/h2>\n

The 2026–2028 plan was released with last fall’s federal budget and sits inside the 2025 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration<\/a>. On the permanent side, it does not fall at all. It holds flat:<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Permanent resident admissions<\/th>\n2026<\/th>\n2027<\/th>\n2028<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Overall target<\/strong><\/td>\n380,000<\/strong><\/td>\n380,000<\/strong><\/td>\n380,000<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Planning range<\/td>\n350,000–420,000<\/td>\n350,000–420,000<\/td>\n350,000–420,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Economic immigration<\/td>\n239,800<\/td>\n244,700<\/td>\n244,700<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Family reunification<\/td>\n84,000<\/td>\n81,000<\/td>\n81,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Refugees, protected persons, H&C and other<\/td>\n56,200<\/td>\n54,300<\/td>\n54,300<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
French-speaking outside Quebec<\/td>\n9% (30,267)<\/td>\n9.5% (31,825)<\/td>\n10.5% (35,175)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Three things stand out. Permanent residence is flat at 380,000<\/strong> for all three years, down from 395,000 in 2025 — a single step down, then a plateau. The economic share rises from 59 to 64 per cent, so the mix is tilting further toward skilled workers even while the total holds. And the French-speaking target outside Quebec climbs every year, from 9 to 10.5 per cent.<\/p>\n

Where the 385,000 and 370,000 figures come from<\/h2>\n

Those two numbers have circulated in coverage of the Carney interview described as permanent resident targets. They are not. They are the targets for new temporary residents<\/strong> — work and study permits — in the very same plan:<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
New temporary resident arrivals<\/th>\n2026<\/th>\n2027<\/th>\n2028<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Overall target<\/strong><\/td>\n385,000<\/strong><\/td>\n370,000<\/strong><\/td>\n370,000<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Planning range<\/td>\n375,000–395,000<\/td>\n360,000–380,000<\/td>\n360,000–380,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Workers<\/td>\n230,000<\/td>\n220,000<\/td>\n220,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Students<\/td>\n155,000<\/td>\n150,000<\/td>\n150,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The difference is not academic. If you believed permanent residence was being cut from 385,000 to 370,000, you would conclude that PR is getting harder every year. It is not being cut at all. What is being squeezed is the temporary side<\/strong> — the work permits and study permits that most people use as the road to permanent residence.<\/p>\n

That is the more demanding reality, and it points somewhere specific: the entrance is narrowing faster than the destination. Getting into Canada temporarily is where the competition is tightening.<\/p>\n

Two measures that sit outside the totals<\/h2>\n

The government has also adopted two temporary measures expected to welcome roughly 148,000 additional permanent residents over the next two years<\/strong>, and these are not counted inside the plan’s headline figures. Actual admissions can therefore land above the published target without the target having changed — worth knowing before you read too much into any single number.<\/p>\n

The pressure runs the other way too<\/h2>\n

Carney is not being pushed in one direction only. The C.D. Howe Institute’s council on immigration targets — whose members include academics, a deputy minister from the Trudeau era, and former Alberta premier Jason Kenney — recommends continuing to cut: 380,000 next year, then 350,000 in 2028 and 340,000 in 2029<\/strong>. That first figure matches the current plan; the later two fall below it.<\/p>\n

Mikal Skuterud, an economics professor at the University of Waterloo who sits on the panel, made a point worth holding onto: even those reduced numbers are historically high<\/strong>, at roughly 0.9 per cent of the population. He cautioned the Prime Minister against listening to “the business lobby”<\/em>, arguing that “businesses have to compete for scarce labour… they’ve got to offer higher wages to compete, or more attractive jobs more generally.”<\/em><\/p>\n

From the opposition benches, Conservative immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner was blunt: “Immigration levels need to go down, not up.”<\/em><\/p>\n

Carney’s own argument points the other way. He told the Times<\/em> that Canada’s GDP is shrinking because population growth has been held down. Statistics Canada estimated population growth of just 0.5 per cent year over year as of 1 July.<\/p>\n

The five per cent problem<\/h2>\n

The government’s stated goal is to bring the temporary resident population down to 5 per cent of Canada’s total population by the end of next year<\/strong>. As of 1 July, Statistics Canada put non-permanent residents at 6.7 per cent<\/strong>. Skuterud has said that gap makes the target hard to meet on schedule.<\/p>\n

The C.D. Howe council goes further, recommending that 5 per cent be treated as a ceiling rather than a destination<\/strong>, with 3 per cent as the actual goal. It also says Ottawa needs to track work and study permit renewals and departures far better than it currently does — you cannot manage a population you cannot count.<\/p>\n

For anyone holding or seeking a temporary permit, this is the number to watch. Closing a 1.7-point gap means fewer new permits, tighter renewals, or both.<\/p>\n

What this means if you are applying<\/h2>\n
    \n
  • Nothing has changed for your file today.<\/strong> Programs, cut-offs and processing standards are exactly where they were yesterday. Act on published rules, not on an interview.<\/li>\n
  • Permanent residence is not shrinking.<\/strong> The target is flat at 380,000 and the economic share is rising. If you qualify on skills, the door has not narrowed.<\/li>\n
  • The temporary side is where it is getting harder.<\/strong> Work and study permit intake falls in 2027 and again holds lower in 2028, and the 5 per cent target implies more pressure on renewals.<\/li>\n
  • If you are already eligible, do not wait for November.<\/strong> A more generous plan would raise competition as well as places. Being in the pool with documents ready beats being early to an announcement.<\/li>\n
  • Francophone applicants have a widening advantage.<\/strong> The target outside Quebec rises every year of the plan, to 10.5 per cent by 2028.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    The date to watch<\/h2>\n

    1 November. That is when the next levels plan is legally due, and it is the first moment any of this could become more than talk. The Canadian Press asked Immigration Minister Lena Diab’s office whether permanent resident admissions would rise in the coming plan. It did not receive a response.<\/p>\n

    Until those figures are tabled, the honest summary is short: the Prime Minister has said an increase will come eventually, his own advisory council is recommending the opposite, and the plan in force holds permanent residence steady while cutting temporary arrivals. Anyone telling you today that Canada has raised its immigration targets is describing a sentence in an interview, not a policy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The Prime Minister hinted at higher immigration. The plan in force holds permanent residence flat at 380,000 and cuts temporary arrivals. Here are the actual figures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28215,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-immigration-to-canada"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28214"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28214\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28218,"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28214\/revisions\/28218"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28215"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avalvisa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}