For someone found inadmissible to Canada on security or organised criminality grounds, ministerial relief is the last door. IRCC’s own decision data shows what sits behind it: a median wait of 16 years — and in ten of 33 cases, more than twenty.
The figures below come from IRCC’s list of ministerial decisions as at 21 April 2026.
The headline numbers
- Decisions in the release: 33
- Positive: 19 (58%) — Negative: 14 (42%)
- Processing time: minimum 5 years, median 16 years, maximum 22 years
- 18 of 33 took 15 years or more
- 10 took 20 years or more
The finding that surprises people: of those ten twenty-year cases, seven were decided positively. Length of wait does not predict outcome. It is simply the price of admission.
The provision decides the timeline
- s.34(2) — security. 18 cases, 67% positive, median 20 years, range 11–22.
- s.42.1 — ministerial relief. 12 cases, 58% positive, median 8 years, range 5–10.
- s.37(2)(a) — organised criminality. 2 cases, both negative.
- s.35(2) — human rights violations. 1 case, negative.
The gap between s.34(2) and s.42.1 is the single most consequential fact here: a median of twenty years against eight. Which provision your file falls under shapes your timeline more than anything you control.
Decisions come in batches
- 2022: 3 decisions, all positive, median wait 9 years
- 2023: 3 decisions, 1 positive, median 11 years
- 2024: 25 decisions, 14 positive, median 17 years
- 2025: 2 decisions, 1 positive, median 6 years
2024 is the year a backlog of very old files — some dating to 2002 — was cleared. Decisions arrive in clusters, not at a steady rate, which means silence in any given year says little.
What follows from this
- Plan on a realistic horizon. If your file sits under s.34(2), planning around two or three years does not match the data.
- A long silence is not a refusal. Twenty-two-year files in this release went both ways.
- The provision matters more than almost anything else in setting expectations.
- If your wait has become unreasonable, a mandamus application in Federal Court is worth assessing.
The limits of this data
This is 33 decisions, not a national caseload. It cannot support a national success rate. What it does show reliably is the range of real timelines — and those sit far outside common expectations.
Frequently asked questions
How long does ministerial relief take?
In this data, a median of 16 years, ranging from 5 to 22. For s.34(2) the median is 20 years; for s.42.1, 8 years.
What proportion succeed?
58% of these 33 decisions were positive. It is a small sample and should not be read as a national rate.
Does a long wait mean a refusal is coming?
No. Of the ten cases that took more than twenty years, seven were decided positively.
Which provision moves faster?
s.42.1, at a median of 8 years, against s.34(2) at 20.
My file has been silent for years — what can I do?
Assess whether you meet the test for mandamus in Federal Court. That remedy compels a decision, not a favourable one.
In short
Ministerial relief is a route that exists and that succeeded in more than half of these cases — at a cost in time you should understand from the outset. If you are in this position, have the file reviewed by a Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant (RCIC).
Sources
- IRCC list of ministerial decisions, as at 21 April 2026
- Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, ss. 34, 35, 37 and 42.1
